An old adage in football, one that I shared with Sam when first bringing her into the football fold, is that you win by having success in 3 categories: run the ball, stop the run, and win the turnover battle. For the majority of my life that adage rang true. Most of the time, if a team won the battle in all three, or heck 2 of the 3, categories, they likely won the football game.
In recent years, there are indications that football has leaned away from that old adage, as the league has become a passing league, with high flying passing numbers. Rules have been implemented that seem to favor offense, and the Quarterback position has evolved into a new and necessary beast.
The upcoming Super Bowl may well be an East Coast rematch in the Hoosier state. But, more than anything, the Super Bowl shows us that you can “get there” many ways. The upcoming Super Bowl is the ultimate example of a shifting and diverse blueprint in constructing a successful NFL team.
A team may not need to have a strong running attack to be successful in the NFL. A team may not need to have a top level defense to be successful in the NFL. I still maintain, however, that winning the turnover battle is a key to NFL success, so at least one part of the adage may hold true. We saw turnovers play a huge role in determining which teams won the conference championships.
In terms of defense, the New York Giants and the New England Patriots ranked 27 and 31st respectively. Certainly those rankings lead one to believe in the falsehood of a popular saying “defense wins championship.” What’s happened to that stout NFL blueprint?
I’ve always been pretty skeptical of that defensive rating, however, as it’s based on total yards. I’m less concerned with the yards that a team renders, and more concerned with points given up and how many turn overs a defense forces. After all, an offense can move the ball 80 yards, but if they gain no points or few points, then it’s a “no harm, no foul proposition.” The Giants, for instance, ranked 6th in the NFL in the Give/Take statistic, and several of the other top teams in this category made the playoffs (San Francisco, Green Bay, Detroit, and Atlanta).
It is true that a team wants to stop the other team from scoring, but at the end of the day, you only need one more point than your opponent. So, your defense can give up only 14 points, but if you have an offense that can’t score 15, than you are out of luck.
The New England Patriots gave up an average of 21.4 points per game; however, they scored an average of 32.1 points per game, which is a difference of approximately 11 points per game. A team should win most games scoring 11 points more than their opponent 
The interesting twist to the cool information above is that the Patriots Super Bowl competitor, the NY Giants, gave up and scored about the same number of points per game; they averaged giving up 25 points per game, while scoring 24.6. Apparently they may play up or down to their competition, and perhaps had hot and cold spells (and got hot at the right time). Keep in mind, however, as noted above: The Giants rated very high in that all important Give/Take stat and managed to turn the ball over less than their opponents. The Give/Take stat could be a key differential which helped them ride into the Super Bowl.
An interesting view of 2011 NFL stats shows that less low-rated offensive teams made the playoffs than low-rated defensive teams, and less top-rated rushing teams made the playoffs than top-rated passing teams. Don’t get me wrong, top rated offensive and defensive teams made the playoffs. And, top rated rushing and passing offenses made the playoffs. What we are seeing now, is a mish mash of NFL teams that are all taking diverse paths towards NFL success.
There appears to be no one clear road towards redemption. This may throw old adages on their heads, and frustrate traditionalist who scurry at change. But what it really means is that winning is possible in many ways, and hopefully that means any team can make it happen.
I think it matters less which approach a GM takes, and more that a determined approach is embraced within an organization, throughout the organization. Being a lifelong Lions fan, I lived through a decade of ineptitude where at the center was a GM that appeared to be working from NO BLUEPRINT. It’s impossible to construct anything that leads to success, if there is no foundation determined and implemented that builds towards a successful crescendo. For all I know, Matt Millen could have been throwing darts at his draft boards, and picking names out of hates when he made calls to free agents. There was no rhyme and no reason, and the result was years of torture put upon a helpless fan base.
You can’t wing it! You can’t guess as you go. Like most successes in life, a successful NFL team comes with great planning, and a great team of people that purposefully execute a workable plan. That may not sound flashy and it may not sound “throw back cool,” but I believe it to be true.
If a NFL team wants to build a high flying offense around a stud QB, go for it. If a NFL team wants to build a stout defense that eats Quarterbacks for breakfast, by all means, go for it. In all honestly, I sort of enjoy this new mish mash of successful NFL teams with various flavors.
Going into the Super Bowl, it should be fun to watch a rematch between a 1 seed and a 5 seed. We will watch a team that was consistently strong most of the year, and another that limped towards the end of the year, and turned on the heater at the perfect time (recall the GB Packers of last year).
The old road map towards the Super Bowl may no longer be clear as day to read, but it seems that the road has never been more interesting and ever-changing for teams (and fans) to travel.
